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Washington, Aug. 20, (tca/dpa/GNA) - The bubble finally burst on the spate of National Hurricane Center investigations popping up in the Atlantic with the formation of a tropical depression while four more systems continue to be tracked by Sunday morning.
Tropical Depression Six formed Saturday evening and continues what’s predicted to be a short-lived run because of wind shear. By 5 am (0900 GMT) on Sunday, its centre was located about 1,094 kilometres east of the northern Leeward Islands moving west at 24 kph with maximum sustained winds of 56 mph.
“Some gradual weakening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a remnant low early Monday and dissipate soon thereafter,” forecasters said.
The remainder of the Atlantic is pocked with weather systems that have a chance to become the next tropical depression or storm. If any gain enough strength to become a named system, they would become Tropical Storm Emily with Franklin, Gert and Harold the next names in line.
In its 8 am (1200 GMT) tropical update, two of the four systems had a high chance while the other two a moderate chance to form in the next week.
The most likely is a a broad area of low pressure with showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands showing more signs of circulation.
“Earlier satellite wind data indicated the system was producing winds up to 64 kph on its north side,” forecasters said. “In addition, first light visible satellite suggests the center may be becoming better defined. If these current trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while it moves west-north-westward at about 16 kph over the central tropical Atlantic.”
Upper-level wind shear is expected to increase by Monday limiting its chance to spin up into anything stronger.
The NHC gives it a 80% chance to form in the next two days, and 80% within the next seven.
A low pressure system that moved into the Caribbean Sea since Saturday continues to produce showers and thunderstorms with some signs of organization.
“Additional development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as it moves westward to west-north-westward at 16 to 24 kph over the eastern and central Caribbean, before turning northward and moving into the south-western Atlantic Ocean by midweek,” forecasters said.
Heavy rainfall in parts of the Lesser Antilles is expected in the next couple of days no matter how it develops.
The NHC gives it a 70% chance to form in the next two days, and 80% within the next seven.
A system that dropped some rain over South Florida overnight and now located in the Straits of Florida is expected to continue into the Gulf of Mexico later today and become a broad area of low pressure.
“Some slow development of this system could occur thereafter as it moves westward at about 24 to 32 kph, and a tropical depression could form as it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 30% chance to form in the next two days, and 50% within the next seven.
The newest tracked system emerged from a tropical wave off the coast of Africa late Friday now producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week while it moves west-north-westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 10% chance to form in the next two days, and 50% within the next seven.
GNA
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